-
1.
A prediction rule for severe adverse events in all inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia: a multicenter observational study.
Sakakibara, T, Shindo, Y, Kobayashi, D, Sano, M, Okumura, J, Murakami, Y, Takahashi, K, Matsui, S, Yagi, T, Saka, H, et al
BMC pulmonary medicine. 2022;(1):34
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prediction of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at high risk for severe adverse events (SAEs) requiring higher-intensity treatment is critical. However, evidence regarding prediction rules applicable to all patients with CAP including those with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) is limited. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a new prediction system for SAEs in inpatients with CAP. METHODS Logistic regression analysis was performed in 1334 inpatients of a prospective multicenter study to develop a multivariate model predicting SAEs (death, requirement of mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor support within 30 days after diagnosis). The developed ALL-COP-SCORE rule based on the multivariate model was validated in 643 inpatients in another prospective multicenter study. RESULTS The ALL-COP SCORE rule included albumin (< 2 g/dL, 2 points; 2-3 g/dL, 1 point), white blood cell (< 4000 cells/μL, 3 points), chronic lung disease (1 point), confusion (2 points), PaO2/FIO2 ratio (< 200 mmHg, 3 points; 200-300 mmHg, 1 point), potassium (≥ 5.0 mEq/L, 2 points), arterial pH (< 7.35, 2 points), systolic blood pressure (< 90 mmHg, 2 points), PaCO2 (> 45 mmHg, 2 points), HCO3- (< 20 mmol/L, 1 point), respiratory rate (≥ 30 breaths/min, 1 point), pleural effusion (1 point), and extent of chest radiographical infiltration in unilateral lung (> 2/3, 2 points; 1/2-2/3, 1 point). Patients with 4-5, 6-7, and ≥ 8 points had 17%, 35%, and 52% increase in the probability of SAEs, respectively, whereas the probability of SAEs was 3% in patients with ≤ 3 points. The ALL-COP SCORE rule exhibited a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.85) compared with the other predictive models, and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points exhibited 92% sensitivity and 60% specificity. CONCLUSIONS ALL-COP SCORE rule can be useful to predict SAEs and aid in decision-making on treatment intensity for all inpatients with CAP including those with HCAP. Higher-intensity treatment should be considered in patients with CAP and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points. TRIAL REGISTRATION This study was registered with the University Medical Information Network in Japan, registration numbers UMIN000003306 and UMIN000009837.
-
2.
Association of metabolomic markers and response to nutritional support: A secondary analysis of the EFFORT trial using an untargeted metabolomics approach.
Struja, T, Wolski, W, Schapbach, R, Mueller, B, Laczko, E, Schuetz, P
Clinical nutrition (Edinburgh, Scotland). 2021;(9):5062-5070
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS The EFFORT trial reported a substantial risk reduction for adverse events and mortality in medical in-patients receiving a nutritional support intervention. With the use of an untargeted metabolomics approach, we investigated the prognostic and therapeutic potential of metabolomic markers to understand, whether there are distinct metabolic patterns associated with malnutrition risk as assessed by the Nutritional Risk screening (NRS 2002) score, the risk of 30-day mortality and the response to nutritional support, respectively. METHODS Out of the 2088 samples we randomly selected 120 blood samples drawn on day 1 after hospital admission and before treatment initiation. Samples were stratified by NRS 2002, treatment allocation (intervention vs. control), and mortality at 30 days, but not on the type of medical illness. We performed untargeted analysis by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). RESULTS We measured 1389 metabolites in 120 patients of which 81 (67.5%) survived until day 30. After filtering, 371 metabolites remained, and 200 were matched to one or more Human Metabolome Data Base (HMDB) entries. Between group analysis showed a slight distinction between the treatment groups for patients with a NRS 3, but not for those with NRS 4 and ≥ 5. C-statistic between those who died and survived at day 30 ranged from 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.35-0.68) for a combination of 5 metabolites/predictors to 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.53-0.79) for a combination of 100 metabolites. Pathway analysis found significant enrichment in the pathways for nitrogen, vitamin B3 (nicotinate and nicotinamide), leukotriene, and arachidonic acid metabolisms in nutritional support responders compared to non-responders. CONCLUSION In our heterogenous population of medical inpatients with different illnesses and comorbidities, metabolomic markers showed little prognostic and therapeutic potential for better phenotyping malnutrition and response to nutritional therapy. Future studies should focus on more selected patient populations to understand whether a metabolomic approach can advance the nutritional care of patients.
-
3.
Hypertensive Retinopathy and the Risk of Stroke Among Hypertensive Adults in China.
Chen, X, Liu, L, Liu, M, Huang, X, Meng, Y, She, H, Zhao, L, Zhang, J, Zhang, Y, Gu, X, et al
Investigative ophthalmology & visual science. 2021;(9):28
-
-
Free full text
-
Abstract
PURPOSE This study aimed to investigate the association between hypertensive retinopathy and the risk of first stroke, examine possible effect modifiers in hypertensive patients, and test the appropriateness of the Keith-Wagener-Barker (KWB) classification for predicting stroke risk. METHODS In total, 9793 hypertensive participants (3727 males and 6066 females) without stroke history from the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial were included in this study. The primary outcome was first stroke. RESULTS Over a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 592 participants experienced their first stroke (509 ischemic, 77 hemorrhagic, and six unclassifiable strokes). In total, 5590 participants were diagnosed with grade 1 retinopathy (57.08%), 1466 with grade 2 retinopathy (14.97%), 231 with grade 3 retinopathy (2.36%), and three with grade 4 retinopathy (0.03%). Grades 1 and 2 were merged and classified as mild retinopathy, and grades 3 and 4 were merged and classified as severe retinopathy. There was a significant positive association between hypertensive retinopathy and the risk of first stroke and first ischemic stroke, and no effect modifiers were found. The hazard ratios (HRs) for first stroke were as follows: mild versus no retinopathy, 1.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.58, P = 0.040), and severe versus no retinopathy, 2.40 (95% CI, 1.49-3.84, P < 0.001). The HRs for ischemic stroke were as follows: severe versus no retinopathy, 2.35 (95% CI, 1.41-3.90, P = 0.001), and nonsignificantly increased HRs for mild versus no retinopathy, 1.26 (95% CI, 0.99-1.60, P = 0.057). CONCLUSIONS There was a significant positive association between hypertensive retinopathy and the risk of first stroke in patients with hypertension, indicating that hypertensive retinopathy may be a predictor of the risk of stroke. A simplified two-grade classification system based on the KWB classification is recommended for predicting stroke risk.
-
4.
Clinical risk predictors in atrial fibrillation patients following successful coronary stenting: ENTRUST-AF PCI sub-analysis.
Goette, A, Eckardt, L, Valgimigli, M, Lewalter, T, Laeis, P, Reimitz, PE, Smolnik, R, Zierhut, W, Tijssen, JG, Vranckx, P
Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society. 2021;(6):831-840
-
-
Free full text
-
Abstract
AIMS: This subgroup analysis of the ENTRUST-AF PCI trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02866175; Date of registration: August 2016) evaluated type of AF, and CHA2DS2-VASc score parameters as predictors for clinical outcome. METHODS Patients were randomly assigned after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to either edoxaban (60 mg/30 mg once daily [OD]; n = 751) plus a P2Y12 inhibitor for 12 months or a vitamin K antagonist [VKA] (n = 755) plus a P2Y12 inhibitor and aspirin (100 mg OD, for 1-12 months). The primary outcome was a composite of major/clinically relevant non-major bleeding (CRNM) within 12 months. The composite efficacy endpoint consisted of cardiovascular death, stroke, systemic embolic events, myocardial infarction (MI), and definite stent thrombosis. RESULTS Major/CRNM bleeding event rates were 20.7%/year and 25.6%/year with edoxaban and warfarin, respectively (HR [95% CI]: 0.83 [0.654-1.047]). The event rates of composite outcome were 7.26%/year and 6.86%/year, respectively (HR [95% CI]): 1.06 [0.711-1.587]), and of overall net clinical benefit were 12.48%/year and 12.80%/year, respectively (HR [(95% CI]: 0.99 [(0.730; 1.343]). Increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with increased rates of all outcomes. CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 5 was a marker for stent thrombosis. Paroxysmal AF was associated with a higher occurrence of MI (4.87% versus 2.01%, p = 0.0024). CONCLUSION After PCI in AF patients, increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with increased bleeding rates and CHA2DS2-VASc score (≥ 5) predicted the occurrence of stent thrombosis. Paroxysmal AF was associated with MI. These findings may have important clinical implications in AF patients.
-
5.
Cross-sectional study of aortic valve calcification and cardiovascular risk factors in older Danish men.
Khurrami, L, Møller, JE, Lindholt, JS, Urbonaviciene, G, Steffensen, FH, Lambrechtsen, J, Karon, M, Frost, L, Busk, M, Egstrup, K, et al
Heart (British Cardiac Society). 2021;(19):1536-1543
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Aortic valve calcification (AVC) and coronary artery calcification (CAC) are predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD), presumably sharing risk factors. Our objectives were to determine the prevalence and extent of AVC in a large population of men aged 60-74 years and to assess the association between AVC and cardiovascular risk factors including CAC and biomarkers. METHODS Participants from the DANish CArdioVAscular Screening and intervention trial (DANCAVAS) with AVC and CAC scores and without previous valve replacement were included in the study. Calcification scores were calculated on non-contrast CT scans. Cardiovascular risk factors were self-reported, measured or both, and further explored using descriptive and regression analysis for AVC association. RESULTS 14 073 men aged 60-74 years were included. The AVC scores ranged from 0 to 9067 AU, with a median AVC of 6 AU (IQR 0-82). In 8156 individuals (58.0%), the AVC score was >0 and 215 (1.5%) had an AVC score ≥1200. In the regression analysis, all cardiovascular risk factors were associated with AVC; however, after inclusion of CAC ≥400, only age (ratio of expected counts (REC) 1.07 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.09)), hypertension (REC 1.24 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.41)), obesity (REC 1.34 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.50)), known CVD (REC 1.16 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.31)) and serum phosphate (REC 2.25 (95% CI 1.66 to 3.10) remained significantly associated, while smoking, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate and serum calcium were not. CONCLUSIONS AVC was prevalent in the general population of men aged 60-74 years and was significantly associated with all modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, but only selectively after adjustment for CAC ≥400 AU. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT03946410 and ISRCTN12157806.
-
6.
Sex disparities and adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease: results from the KNOW-CKD.
Jung, CY, Heo, GY, Park, JT, Joo, YS, Kim, HW, Lim, H, Chang, TI, Kang, EW, Yoo, TH, Kang, SW, et al
Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society. 2021;(7):1116-1127
Abstract
AIMS: Longitudinal studies of the association between sex and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are scarce. We assessed whether major outcomes may differ by sex among CKD patients. METHODS We analyzed a total of 1780 participants with non-dialysis CKD G1-5 from the KoreaN cohort study for Outcome in patients with Chronic Kidney Disease (KNOW-CKD). The primary outcome was a composite of non-fatal cardiovascular events or all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality, and a composite kidney outcome of ≥ 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate from baseline or the onset of end-stage kidney disease. RESULTS There were 1088 (61%) men and 692 (39%) women in the study cohort. The proportion of smokers was significantly higher in men (24% vs. 3%). During 8430 person-years of follow-up, 201 primary outcome events occurred: 144 (13%) in men and 57 (8%) in women, with corresponding incidence rates of 2.9 and 1.7 per 100 person-years, respectively. In multivariable Cox models, men were associated with a 1.58-fold (95% CI 1.06-2.35) higher risk of composite outcome. Propensity score matching analysis revealed similar findings (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.14-2.91). Risk of all-cause mortality was significantly higher in men of the matched cohort. However, there was no difference in the risk of CKD progression. In the subgroup with coronary artery calcium (CAC) measurements, men had a higher likelihood of CAC progression. CONCLUSIONS In Korean CKD patients, men were more likely to experience adverse cardiovascular events and death than women.
-
7.
Derivation of a Coronary Age Calculator Using Traditional Risk Factors and Coronary Artery Calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.
Blaha, MJ, Naazie, IN, Cainzos-Achirica, M, Dardari, ZA, DeFilippis, AP, McClelland, RL, Mirbolouk, M, Orimoloye, OA, Dzaye, O, Nasir, K, et al
Journal of the American Heart Association. 2021;(6):e019351
Abstract
Background The optimal method for communicating coronary heart disease (CHD) risk to individual patients is not yet clear. Recent research supports the concept of "coronary age" for more effective risk communication. We defined an individual's coronary age as the age at which an average healthy individual would have an equivalent estimated CHD risk as that calculated for the index individual, building on our previously validated MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) 10-year CHD Risk Score equations with and without coronary artery calcium (CAC). Methods and Results We derived a coronary age by (1) calculating the MESA 10-year CHD risk; (2) mathematically setting this equal to an equation describing risk of an average healthy MESA participant, as a function of age; and (3) solving for age. The risk discrimination of the resultant coronary age was compared with that of chronological age, the MESA CHD Risk Score, and CAC alone. Approximately 95% of coronary age values ranged from 30 years less to 30 years higher than chronological age. Although the mean chronological age of individuals experiencing CHD events compared with those free of events was 67.4 versus 61.8 years, the difference in coronary age including CAC was larger (80.6 versus 62.8 years). Coronary age with CAC had identical predictive ability to that of MESA CHD Risk Score and outperformed chronological age and CAC alone. Conclusions The newly derived coronary age is a convenient transformation of MESA CHD Risk, retaining very good risk discrimination. This easy-to-communicate tool will be available for patients and clinicians, potentially facilitating risk communication in routine care.
-
8.
Biomarker-Based Risk Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease Dementia in Mild Cognitive Impairment: Psychosocial, Ethical, and Legal Aspects.
Rostamzadeh, A, Schwegler, C, Gil-Navarro, S, Rosende-Roca, M, Romotzky, V, Ortega, G, Canabate, P, Moreno, M, Schmitz-Luhn, B, Boada, M, et al
Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD. 2021;(2):601-617
Abstract
BACKGROUND Today, a growing number of individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) wish to assess their risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. The expectations as well as the effects on quality of life (QoL) in MCI patients and their close others through biomarker-based dementia risk estimation are not well studied. OBJECTIVE The PreDADQoL project aims at providing empirical data on effects of such prediction on QoL and at developing an ethical and legal framework of biomarker-based dementia risk estimation in MCI. METHODS In the empirical study, 100 MCI-patients and their close others will be recruited from two sites (Germany and Spain). They receive standardized counselling on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker-based prediction of AD dementia and a risk disclosure based on their AD biomarker status. A mixed methods approach will be applied to assess outcomes. RESULTS The pilot-study yielded a specification of the research topics and newly developed questionnaires for the main assessment. Within this binational quantitative and qualitative study, data on attitudes and expectations toward AD risk prediction, QoL, risk communication, coping strategies, mental health, lifestyle changes, and healthcare resource utilization will be obtained. Together with the normative part of the project, an empirically informed ethical and legal framework for biomarker-based dementia risk estimation will be developed. CONCLUSION The empirical research of the PreDADQoL study together with the ethical and legal considerations and implications will help to improve the process of counselling and risk disclosure and thereby positively affect QoL and health of MCI-patients and their close others in the context of biomarker-based dementia risk estimation.
-
9.
Contemporary Management of Severe Symptomatic Aortic Stenosis.
Eugène, M, Duchnowski, P, Prendergast, B, Wendler, O, Laroche, C, Monin, JL, Jobic, Y, Popescu, BA, Bax, JJ, Vahanian, A, et al
Journal of the American College of Cardiology. 2021;(22):2131-2143
Abstract
BACKGROUND There were gaps between guidelines and practice when surgery was the only treatment for aortic stenosis (AS). OBJECTIVES This study analyzed the decision to intervene in patients with severe AS in the EORP VHD (EURObservational Research Programme Valvular Heart Disease) II survey. METHODS Among 2,152 patients with severe AS, 1,271 patients with high-gradient AS who were symptomatic fulfilled a Class I recommendation for intervention according to the 2012 European Society of Cardiology guidelines; the primary end point was the decision for intervention. RESULTS A decision not to intervene was taken in 262 patients (20.6%). In multivariate analysis, the decision not to intervene was associated with older age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.34 per 10-year increase; 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.61; P = 0.002), New York Heart Association functional classes I and II versus III (OR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.16 to 2.30; P = 0.005), higher age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (OR: 1.09 per 1-point increase; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.17; P = 0.03), and a lower transaortic mean gradient (OR: 0.81 per 10-mm Hg decrease; 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.92; P < 0.001). During the study period, 346 patients (40.2%, median age 84 years, median EuroSCORE II [European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II] 3.1%) underwent transcatheter intervention and 515 (59.8%, median age 69 years, median EuroSCORE II 1.5%) underwent surgery. A decision not to intervene versus intervention was associated with lower 6-month survival (87.4%; 95% CI: 82.0 to 91.3 vs 94.6%; 95% CI: 92.8 to 95.9; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS A decision not to intervene was taken in 1 in 5 patients with severe symptomatic AS despite a Class I recommendation for intervention and the decision was particularly associated with older age and combined comorbidities. Transcatheter intervention was extensively used in octogenarians.
-
10.
Maternal and Perinatal Factors Associated With Kawasaki Disease Among Offspring in Taiwan.
Chang, CL, Lin, MC, Lin, CH, Ko, TM
JAMA network open. 2021;(3):e213233
-
-
Free full text
-
Abstract
This case-control study investigates the association of perinatal factors and maternal autoimmune diseases with the development of Kawasaki disease using the Taiwan Maternal and Child Health Database.